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A slow, multi-week macro lean plus today's expected volatility and event map. The lean is context, not a trade signal; the volatility and event timing are the actionable parts.
Macro lean (multi-week background): neutral / range (-0.057). Expected volatility today: normal (53th pctile · ~0.316% move).
| Time | Session | Ccy | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | Asia | NL | Inflation Rate | HIGH |
| 04:30 | Asia | NL | CPI | HIGH |
| 05:00 | Asia | FI | Harmonised Inflation Rate | HIGH |
| 06:45 | Asia | FR | HICP | - |
| 06:45 | Asia | FR | CPI n.s.a | - |
| 06:45 | Asia | FR | CPI | - |
| 06:45 | Asia | FR | Harmonised Inflation Rate | - |
| 06:45 | Asia | FR | Inflation Rate | - |
| 07:00 | London | AT | HICP | HIGH |
| 07:00 | London | AT | Harmonised Inflation Rate | HIGH |
| 07:00 | London | AT | CPI | HIGH |
| 07:00 | London | AT | Inflation Rate | HIGH |
| 07:55 | London | DE | Unemployment Rate | - |
| 08:00 | London | EU | ECB Policy | HIGH |
| 08:30 | London | PT | Inflation Rate | HIGH |
| 08:30 | London | PT | CPI | HIGH |
| 09:00 | London | GR | Retail Sales | - |
| 09:00 | London | IT | Harmonised Inflation Rate | - |
| 09:00 | London | EU | Core CPI | HIGH |
| 09:00 | London | EU | HICP | HIGH |
Macro lean (multi-week background): bearish (-0.248). Expected volatility today: turbulent (88th pctile · ~1.349% move).
| Time | Session | Ccy | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | London | EU | ECB Policy | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | Employment Wages | - |
| 12:30 | London | US | Employment Cost - Wages | - |
| 13:45 | New York | US | Chicago PMI | HIGH |
| 14:00 | New York | US | Michigan Current Conditions | - |
| 14:00 | New York | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | - |
| 14:00 | New York | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | - |
| 14:00 | New York | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | - |
| 14:00 | New York | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | - |
| 14:00 | New York | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | - |
Leans range (leaning) — odds: range 31%, bull 30%, bear 29%, whipsaw 8%. The 80% cloud spans about 110 pips over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: CPI, Chicago PMI, Core CPI, Core Inflation Rate, ECB Policy, HICP, Inflation Rate. Be ready for a scenario switch around: CPI, Chicago PMI, Core CPI, Core Inflation Rate, ECB Policy, HICP, Inflation Rate. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Leans range (clear) — odds: range 50%, bear 18%, bull 18%, whipsaw 13%. The 80% cloud spans about 93 pips over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: none. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: provisional preview — anchored on the last close, refreshes at reopen
Leans range (clear) — odds: range 41%, whipsaw 23%, bear 22%, bull 13%. The 80% cloud spans about $71.2 over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: CPI, Chicago PMI, Core CPI, Core Inflation Rate, ECB Policy, HICP, Inflation Rate. Be ready for a scenario switch around: CPI, Chicago PMI, Core CPI, Core Inflation Rate, ECB Policy, HICP, Inflation Rate. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Leans bear (leaning) — odds: bear 31%, whipsaw 27%, bull 25%, range 15%. The 80% cloud spans about $161.5 over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: none. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: provisional preview — anchored on the last close, refreshes at reopen
2026-07-24: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted range (ended outside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-30: predicted range (ended outside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-31: predicted range
2026-07-23: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-26: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted range (ended outside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted range (ended outside the 80% cloud); 2026-08-02: predicted range
2026-07-24: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-30: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-31: predicted range
2026-07-23: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-26: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted bear (ended outside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-08-02: predicted bear
How the Gravity Cloud chart is built and how to read it.
The cloud is NOT a forecast of one price path. Each day at the 07:00 / 23:00 UTC checkpoint the model finds the historical days whose market state most resembles today (by scenario probabilities and market-memory context — the "Today resembles" list), then looks at what those analog days actually did over the following 24 hours.
- Bands (grey shading): quantiles of those analog paths. The OUTER band (p10–p90) holds about 80% of comparable historical outcomes; the INNER band (p25–p75) about 50%. The bands widen with time because uncertainty grows through the day. They are calibrated — historically the 80% band contains the real close roughly 83–92% of the time. This width is the honest, reliable output: it is the move-size to prepare for. - Median lines (coloured): the typical path of each scenario (bull / bear / range / whipsaw) among today's analog days. A line is only drawn when at least ~6 analog days ended in that scenario. A median is a representative route, not a prediction of THE path. - Branch-risk zones (purple = events, blue = session handoffs): the times when the active scenario historically changes most often — around scheduled high-impact events and Asia/London/NY opens. Around these, be ready for price to leave one cloud/median and join another. The bands already include event-day behaviour, so they are not widened further at events — the zones are the signal to watch, the band is the calibrated range. - Probabilities: the share of analog days that ended in each scenario. Treat them like weather odds — they carry small but real skill, not certainty. - White line: actual price so far. Dashed grey: the checkpoint price (zero line).
What to trust most: the range/volatility and the event timing. Direction is the hardest part and the probabilities are a lean, not a signal.